Tickers

Friday, 20 December 2013

2014 MMXIV: Time to Ride Hold On To Your Horses!!

2014 MMXIV: Time to Ride Hold On To Your Horses!!
v  A few months back, when markets were crashing faster than Niagara Falls, investors given up on fundamentals, they’d even come to despair of the arcane wavering of chartists but later part of the year it picked up pace and now that we are at the end of it, its proved  that 2013 has been a terrific year for stocks Indeed a Lucky 13.
v  But now it’s time to stop reflecting on 2013 and start thinking about 2014. What's important is that  there's a lot of skepticism about how the markets will behave in 2014.
v  A new year 2014 is just around the corner. According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2014 the “Year of the Horse”. There is a belief that Horses are naturally lucky when it comes to money resources and career.
v  But the true fact remains that Horse can give people a quick ride to their destination. Therefore, horse is not only a symbol of traveling, but also a sign of speedy success. According to me same are the prospects for Indian markets which is looking very endearing, India’s economy is set for a speedy recovery as it shows like the growth has bottomed out.
v  A measured recovery in global growth, strong policy action, range-bound crude oil prices and rate cuts in response to a fall in inflation earnings growth set to rise from here on.
v  Back home too on economic front a downward trend in inflation will be a vital input in RBI's policy in the first half of 2014 as much as fiscal consolidation. As per RBI the Liquidity for the banking sector (as measured by loan-deposit ratio) will also improve simultaneously, which can then be transmitted towards lower interest rates for the corporate sector.
v  So what do have in store for 2014 Firstly Politics is the key point of focus of 2014. With  general  election  having  to  be  held  in May 2014 India is clearly in election mood, there is no doubt that what could be termed as Modi momentum is building in India. It is also clear that  perceptions  of  Narendra  Modi’s  prospects  for  the  general  election  are  rising  by  the  day.
v  The market could gyrate around election outcomes and obviously, one cannot forecast the election result with any confidence. A good election outcome is almost necessary for stock markets to rise, but may prove insufficient unless followed up with policy action.
v  So Secondly on policy action and Reforms front, Investors will also gain confidence if new government is able to boost growth via more policy reforms that lift returns for the corporate on existing investment and increases confidence on expected returns on investment, the ensuing growth recovery will also help the corporate sector lower its debt ratios while also alleviating asset quality concerns for the banking sector.
v  And last but not the least on earnings front In the next earnings season starting early January I expect revenue growth to stop decelerating and margins expansion to continue. I think that earnings growth is likely to improve over the next 4-6 quarters. Therefore, I believe, the earnings revisions breadth will also rise and that is good for share prices. However, the recovery in earnings is likely to be at a steady pace unless there is a major positive change in the investment rate or the current account.
v  An improving economic outlook and an upward trending market suggest that it is attractively poised to increase equity positions. Value stocks have struggled over the past 5-years and are due for a bounce. Historical pattern recognition work also suggests 2014 to be a year for value positioning.

My Take:
v  All in all after five years of pain for now, Worst is behind, expectations have moderated Flows hold the key to market performance so it Time to Ride Just Hold On To Your Horses as the new bull run is all here.
v  According to me the stage is set for a new bull market, Indices are all set for a minimum +25% to + 30% returns in the coming year.
v  As the New Year approaches us with new hopes, before every one goes on vacations, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your support throughout very tough and volatile year. Here is wishing you and your family a wonderful year ahead Merry Xmas and Happy New Year 2014  
v  To Conclude As I always say…

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

My Top Pick For 2014
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
ADANI   ENTERPRISES
ADANI  PORTS
TATA  GLOBAL BEVERAGES
UNION  BANK


Year To date Performance as of 19.12.2013
                                   
Nifty       6,167           4.43% 
Sensex             20,709           6.60% 
                                   
2013 Best Performers(Nifty)                                   
1.         HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD                        1,236   99.78%
2.         TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD            2,082   65.74%
3.         SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUS            583      58.34%
4.         INFOSYS LTD                                                3,512   51.47%
5.         WIPRO LTD                                          529   50.39%
6.         LUPIN LTD                                           910   48.19%
7.         DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES      2,464   34.64%
8.         MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD        1,781   19.50%
9.         TATA MOTORS LTD                                      370    18.20%
10.       KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD  722      11.06%
                                   
2013 Worst Performers(Nifty)                    
1.         JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES LTD   52        (46.80%)
2.         JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD       251      (43.97%)
3.         IDFC LTD                                           104      (39.35%)
4.         PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK                      580      (33.44%)
5.         DLF LTD                                            159      (31.24%)
6.         BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS   163      (28.76%)
7.         STATE BANK OF INDIA                1,731    (27.43%)
8.         BANK OF BARODA                         639      (26.29%)
9.         ACC LTD                                         1,082     (24.43%)
10.       COAL INDIA LTD                            281      (20.80%)



Jatin Padharia

Friday, 21 December 2012

2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13th?!!



2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13th?!!
Year of Black Snake!!
Ø  According to the Chinese Zodiac,  2013 the year of the black Snake” is just about the corner. According to Ancient Chinese wisdom says a Snake in the house is a good omen because it means that your family will not starve. Will the coming year 2013 be a Lucky or Unlucky 13? As for 13 is the death card in tarot!!
Ø  If u ask me according to me the Year of Snake will be lucky for India!! After a very challenging 2012, Indian economy is likely to enter year 2013 on a much positive note as compared to the year 2012. India in 2013 will be a mix of politics, impending elections, reforms and economic revival expectations. Addressing the fiscal deficit may be next on the agenda.
Ø  The prospects for markets look very endearing, India’s economy is gradually improving as we move into 2013. I feel overall growth will pick up gradually to 6.5% in 2013 and further to 7.2% in 2014.
Ø  The market has so far got caught up in the noise – in 2013, you will have to look beyond that lower interest rates and inflation, easier liquidity and government intent - all tailwinds for the market.
Ø  As per latest RBI’s guidance, rate cuts could resume in the first quarter of 2013 – most likely in January itself. The global situation appears to be stabilizing while the domestic industrial cycle should also gather some steam soon. Rate-sensitive cyclicals and industrial cyclicals doing well over the next few months. Earnings season so far indicates earnings trend close to bottoming.
Ø  An improving economic outlook and an upward trending market suggest that it is attractively poised to increase equity positions. Value stocks have struggled over the past 6-years and are due for a bounce. Historical pattern recognition work also suggests 2013 to be a year for value positioning.
Ø  According to me the stage is set for a new bull market, Indices are all set for a minimum +15% to +20% returns in the coming year.

2012 The Year Of “Water Dragon”: Worst is Over!!
Ø  It had been a year that most stock market investors would not want to forget. To arrest a falling growth trajectory and rising twin deficits and the resulting pessimism within industry circles on “policy paralysis”, GoI announced a number of reforms measures to revive sentiment and growth. To signal its strong intent, it chose to start with reforms that were among the most contentious politically such as……
Ø  Easing rules for FDI in single-brand retail, allowing 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, allowing FDI of 49% each in aviation and power exchanges, and increasing FDI limit from 49% to 74% in cable networks, DTH, teleports and mobile TV
Ø  Increasing diesel prices by Rs5/litre and restricting subsidised LPG cylinder to six per family, realigning of tax structure to reduce the gap between diesel/petrol prices
Ø  Withholding tax cut to 5% from 20% on external borrowings
Ø  A Committee on controversial tax decisions recommended that GAAR be postponed for three years and that FIIs should be exempt from GAAR.
Ø  Investments by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market have crossed $22.22bln in 2012, marking a huge turnaround from net outflows reported in 2011.
Ø  Most of India Inc also seem to have borrowed afresh to meet their foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) obligations in 2012.Of the 45 Indian companies whose FCCBs were due for redemption between March and mid-October 2012, 19 managed to redeem the bonds on the due dates. The list includes Reliance Communications, Strides Arcolab, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Jaiprakash Associates.
Ø  The rupee also fell to historic lows against the US dollar.
Ø  Overall review of all things concerned - be in personal, financial, relationships ,political and so on - is definitely a great idea before you get busy with your preparations for the New Year eve celebrations.
Ø  As we approach the end of 2012 , I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your support throughout very tough and volatile year. Here's wishing you and your family Merry Xmas and Happy 2013   
Ø   To Conclude I would say…

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

My Top Pick For 2013
RelCap   Cmp  471
RCom     Cmp  74
RelInfra  Cmp  522
Dlf          Cmp  225
GodrejInd  Cmp 310


Year To date Performance as of 20.12.2011

Nifty   27.94%
Sensex 25.88%

2012 Best Performers(Nifty)            
1.      JPAssociate          93%                     
2.      IDFC                     91%
3.      Ultratech             73%
4.      Asian Paints        71%
5.      Tata Motors         71%
6.      ICICI Bank           66%
7.      Maruti                  66%
8.      HclTech                 65%
9.      Axis Bank             63%
10.  LnT                       63%

2012 Worst Performers(Nifty)
1.      Infosys      -17%
2.      Gail           -8%
3.      Bharti       -8%
4.      Ntpc          -4%
5.      Wipro        -4%
6.      Bhel           -3%
7.      Herohonda 0%
8.      Cairn         2%
9.      Ongc         3%
10.  JindalStl & Power  4%


Tuesday, 22 May 2012

India Market Wrap


Ø  INDICES: Sensex -157 at 16026 (-0.97%), NIFTY -46 at 4861 (-0.93%), CNXMIDCAP -46 at 6857 (-0.66%)
Ø  SECTORAL PERFORMANCE: BANKEX -1.51%, AUTO -0.79%, CAPITAL GOODS -1.21%, HEALTHCARE -0.51%, Metal -1.83%, OIL & GAS -0.56%, IT 0.15%, FMCG -0.89%, PSU -1.01%, REALTY -1.23%, Consumer Durables 0.11%, POWER -1.45%
Ø  MARKET BREADTH: 146 Advances, 343 Declines (BSE 500)
Ø  VOLUMES: BSE $0.33bn (17.05%), NSE $1.63bn (15.29%), F&O $22.33bn (25.45%)
Ø  TODAY'S GAINERS: HCLT 1.71%, TTMT 1.24%, TCS 1.23%, SAIL 0.99%, BHEL 0.87%
Ø  TODAY'S LOSERS: TPWR -5.49%, SESA -5.23%, MSIL -4.54%, STLT -4.01%, RPWR -3.68%

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Indian equities came under pressure for a second consecutive trading session of the week, as continued weakness in the rupee raised fears of more outflows from FIIs.  Domestic markets failed soar in tandem with the rally in global markets as domestic concerns marred investors’ appetite for riskier asset classes like equities. Though, the beaten down sectoral gauges of last session IT and technology have moved higher but the rate sensitive that were the top gainers are suffering sharp profit taking. Power sector too has given up its last session gains. On the global front, though the European markets made a bit hesitant start but have gathered momentum on speculation that China and the euro area will do more to bolster economic growth. Sentiments in Asian markets remained sanguine since the start of trade tracking overnight rally in US markets as investors resorted to bargain hunting amid some supportive developments from the meeting of group of eight (G8) nations and hopes that world’s second largest economy China would employ further stimulus measures to spur growth of the global growth machine. Back home, the beleaguered the rupee slipped below the 55.25 per dollar mark, hitting a four-month low against the greenback, as the widening trade and current account deficits weighed on the Indian currency. which started on a positive note went ahead to touch fresh historical lows in the session and weighed down investors’ morale. On the sectoral space, buying was evident in the Healthcare and Consumer Durables supported the benchmark indices. On the flipside, the falls in high beta Realty, Banking and Power sectors by more than a percent each exerted pressure on the bourses. Moreover, the market breadth was in favor of declines.

NEWS ON TODAYS MOVERS:
Ø  ABB rose 1.99%, after the company said it won an order worth around Rs 175 crore from NTPC to build two substations in Maharashtra.
Ø  National Aluminium Company fell 1.89% after net profit fell 7.6% to Rs 282.10 crore on 1.9% decline in net sales to Rs 1753.41 crore in Q4 March 2012 over Q4 March 2011.
Ø  Gitanjali Gems rose 0.34% after consolidated net profit rose 37.32% to Rs 487.25 crore on 33% growth in net sales to Rs 12498.30 crore in the year ended 31 March 2012 over the year ended 31 March 2011.
Ø  State-run oil marketing companies rose 0.3% on reports the government will provide Rs 38500 crore as cash subsidy to state-run oil companies for January-March 2012 quarter. .
Ø  Reliance Industries declined 0.63% after the company said to seeks loan of $1 bn to fund expansion
Ø  Thomas Cook (India) rose 2.54% after the company said its parent Thomas Cook Group plc has reached an agreement with a subsidiary of Fairfax Financial Holdings to sell its 77% stake in the company to the latter.
Ø  Sun Pharmaceutical Industries fell 3.48% on profit booking after the stock rose 2.21% in the preceding two sessions to Rs 593.05 on 21 May 2012 from a recent low of Rs 580.25 on 17 May 2012.
Ø  Power Finance Corporation rose 0.51% after net profit rose 34.69% to Rs 818.30 crore on 40.44% increase in total income to Rs 3,684.29 crore in Q4 March 2012 over Q4 March 2011.
Ø  Bhel rose 0.87%, extending Monday's 2.51% rise triggered by the company bagging a contract from NTPC.
Ø  Tata Communications fell 0.45% after the company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 260.94 crore for Q4 March 2012, higher than net loss of Rs 156.51 crore in Q4 March 2011.

CORPORATE NEWS:
Ø  Suven Life Sciences gets four patent approvals
Ø  RIL ropes in Phillips 66 technology for Jamnagar plants
Ø  Genpact inks finance, accounting deal with Dr Reddy's
Ø  PFC Q4 net up 35% at Rs 820 cr
Ø  Venus Remedies gets patent in South Africa for antibiotic
Ø  Nalco's net profit Rs 849 cr in 2011-12
Ø  Tata Comm Q4 net loss widens to Rs 261 cr
Ø  The Coal India-ICVL story: Missed opportunitie
Ø  Apollo Tyres expands capacity of S Africa units by 20-30%
Ø  Thomas Cook India sells stake to Fairbridge for Rs 817 cr
Ø  Swiss Re may buy 26% in L&T's proposed health insurance JV
Ø  Wockhardt cons Q4 net loss at Rs191.64
Ø  PFC cons Q4 net profit surges by 16%
Ø  Dr Reddy's launch Lansoprazole capsules in US market
Ø  Bajaj Auto to boost capacity by 25% to match up with competition
Ø  PSU OMCs in demand on likely oil subsidy
Ø  M&M to infuse Rs500 cr, aims to recapture 2wheeler mkt
Ø  RBI will continue take steps to stabilise rupee: Gokarn |
Ø  ABB bags Rs175 cr order from NTPC
Ø  RIL seeks loan of $1 bn to fund expansion
Ø  Tata Motors to raise funds via bonds: Source
Ø  RINL files draft prospectus for IPO

ECONOMIC NEWS:
Ø  Presidential polls: Sangma appeals to political parties