2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13th?!!

2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13^th?!!

Year of Black Snake!!

Ø  According to the Chinese Zodiac,  2013 the year of the black Snake” is just about the corner. According to Ancient Chinese wisdom says a Snake in the house is a good omen because it means that your family will not starve. Will the coming year 2013 be a Lucky or Unlucky 13? As for 13 is the death card in tarot!!

Ø  If u ask me according to me the Year of Snake will be lucky for India!! After a very challenging 2012, Indian economy is likely to enter year 2013 on a much positive note as compared to the year 2012. India in 2013 will be a mix of politics, impending elections, reforms and economic revival expectations. Addressing the fiscal deficit may be next on the agenda.

Ø  The prospects for markets look very endearing, India’s economy is gradually improving as we move into 2013. I feel overall growth will pick up gradually to 6.5% in 2013 and further to 7.2% in 2014.

Ø  The market has so far got caught up in the noise – in 2013, you will have to look beyond that lower interest rates and inflation, easier liquidity and government intent - all tailwinds for the market.

Ø  As per latest RBI’s guidance, rate cuts could resume in the first quarter of 2013 – most likely in January itself. The global situation appears to be stabilizing while the domestic industrial cycle should also gather some steam soon. Rate-sensitive cyclicals and industrial cyclicals doing well over the next few months. Earnings season so far indicates earnings trend close to bottoming.

Ø  An improving economic outlook and an upward trending market suggest that it is attractively poised to increase equity positions. Value stocks have struggled over the past 6-years and are due for a bounce. Historical pattern recognition work also suggests 2013 to be a year for value positioning.

Ø  According to me the stage is set for a new bull market, Indices are all set for a minimum +15% to +20% returns in the coming year.

2012 The Year Of “Water Dragon”: Worst is Over!!

Ø  It had been a year that most stock market investors would not want to forget. To arrest a falling growth trajectory and rising twin deficits and the resulting pessimism within industry circles on “policy paralysis”, GoI announced a number of reforms measures to revive sentiment and growth. To signal its strong intent, it chose to start with reforms that were among the most contentious politically such as……

Ø  Easing rules for FDI in single-brand retail, allowing 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, allowing FDI of 49% each in aviation and power exchanges, and increasing FDI limit from 49% to 74% in cable networks, DTH, teleports and mobile TV

Ø  Increasing diesel prices by Rs5/litre and restricting subsidised LPG cylinder to six per family, realigning of tax structure to reduce the gap between diesel/petrol prices

Ø  Withholding tax cut to 5% from 20% on external borrowings

Ø  A Committee on controversial tax decisions recommended that GAAR be postponed for three years and that FIIs should be exempt from GAAR.

Ø  Investments by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market have crossed $22.22bln in 2012, marking a huge turnaround from net outflows reported in 2011.

Ø  Most of India Inc also seem to have borrowed afresh to meet their foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) obligations in 2012.Of the 45 Indian companies whose FCCBs were due for redemption between March and mid-October 2012, 19 managed to redeem the bonds on the due dates. The list includes Reliance Communications, Strides Arcolab, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Jaiprakash Associates.

Ø  The rupee also fell to historic lows against the US dollar.

Ø  Overall review of all things concerned - be in personal, financial, relationships ,political and so on - is definitely a great idea before you get busy with your preparations for the New Year eve celebrations.

Ø  As we approach the end of 2012 , I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your support throughout very tough and volatile year. Here's wishing you and your family Merry Xmas and Happy 2013   

Ø   To Conclude I would say…

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

My Top Pick For 2013

RelCap   Cmp  471

RCom     Cmp  74

RelInfra  Cmp  522

Dlf          Cmp  225

GodrejInd  Cmp 310

Year To date Performance as of 20.12.2011

Nifty   27.94%

Sensex 25.88%

2012 Best Performers(Nifty)            

1.      JPAssociate          93%                     

2.      IDFC                     91%

3.      Ultratech             73%

4.      Asian Paints        71%

5.      Tata Motors         71%

6.      ICICI Bank           66%

7.      Maruti                  66%

8.      HclTech                 65%

9.      Axis Bank             63%

10.  LnT                       63%

2012 Worst Performers(Nifty)

1.      Infosys      -17%

2.      Gail           -8%

3.      Bharti       -8%

4.      Ntpc          -4%

5.      Wipro        -4%

6.      Bhel           -3%

7.      Herohonda 0%

8.      Cairn         2%

9.      Ongc         3%

10.  JindalStl & Power  4%