2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13th?!!

2013 (MMXIII) The Lucky 13^th?!!

Year of Black Snake!!

Ø  According to the Chinese Zodiac,  2013 the year of the black Snake” is just about the corner. According to Ancient Chinese wisdom says a Snake in the house is a good omen because it means that your family will not starve. Will the coming year 2013 be a Lucky or Unlucky 13? As for 13 is the death card in tarot!!

Ø  If u ask me according to me the Year of Snake will be lucky for India!! After a very challenging 2012, Indian economy is likely to enter year 2013 on a much positive note as compared to the year 2012. India in 2013 will be a mix of politics, impending elections, reforms and economic revival expectations. Addressing the fiscal deficit may be next on the agenda.

Ø  The prospects for markets look very endearing, India’s economy is gradually improving as we move into 2013. I feel overall growth will pick up gradually to 6.5% in 2013 and further to 7.2% in 2014.

Ø  The market has so far got caught up in the noise – in 2013, you will have to look beyond that lower interest rates and inflation, easier liquidity and government intent - all tailwinds for the market.

Ø  As per latest RBI’s guidance, rate cuts could resume in the first quarter of 2013 – most likely in January itself. The global situation appears to be stabilizing while the domestic industrial cycle should also gather some steam soon. Rate-sensitive cyclicals and industrial cyclicals doing well over the next few months. Earnings season so far indicates earnings trend close to bottoming.

Ø  An improving economic outlook and an upward trending market suggest that it is attractively poised to increase equity positions. Value stocks have struggled over the past 6-years and are due for a bounce. Historical pattern recognition work also suggests 2013 to be a year for value positioning.

Ø  According to me the stage is set for a new bull market, Indices are all set for a minimum +15% to +20% returns in the coming year.

2012 The Year Of “Water Dragon”: Worst is Over!!

Ø  It had been a year that most stock market investors would not want to forget. To arrest a falling growth trajectory and rising twin deficits and the resulting pessimism within industry circles on “policy paralysis”, GoI announced a number of reforms measures to revive sentiment and growth. To signal its strong intent, it chose to start with reforms that were among the most contentious politically such as……

Ø  Easing rules for FDI in single-brand retail, allowing 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, allowing FDI of 49% each in aviation and power exchanges, and increasing FDI limit from 49% to 74% in cable networks, DTH, teleports and mobile TV

Ø  Increasing diesel prices by Rs5/litre and restricting subsidised LPG cylinder to six per family, realigning of tax structure to reduce the gap between diesel/petrol prices

Ø  Withholding tax cut to 5% from 20% on external borrowings

Ø  A Committee on controversial tax decisions recommended that GAAR be postponed for three years and that FIIs should be exempt from GAAR.

Ø  Investments by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market have crossed $22.22bln in 2012, marking a huge turnaround from net outflows reported in 2011.

Ø  Most of India Inc also seem to have borrowed afresh to meet their foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) obligations in 2012.Of the 45 Indian companies whose FCCBs were due for redemption between March and mid-October 2012, 19 managed to redeem the bonds on the due dates. The list includes Reliance Communications, Strides Arcolab, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Jaiprakash Associates.

Ø  The rupee also fell to historic lows against the US dollar.

Ø  Overall review of all things concerned - be in personal, financial, relationships ,political and so on - is definitely a great idea before you get busy with your preparations for the New Year eve celebrations.

Ø  As we approach the end of 2012 , I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your support throughout very tough and volatile year. Here's wishing you and your family Merry Xmas and Happy 2013   

Ø   To Conclude I would say…

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

My Top Pick For 2013

RelCap   Cmp  471

RCom     Cmp  74

RelInfra  Cmp  522

Dlf          Cmp  225

GodrejInd  Cmp 310

Year To date Performance as of 20.12.2011

Nifty   27.94%

Sensex 25.88%

2012 Best Performers(Nifty)            

1.      JPAssociate          93%                     

2.      IDFC                     91%

3.      Ultratech             73%

4.      Asian Paints        71%

5.      Tata Motors         71%

6.      ICICI Bank           66%

7.      Maruti                  66%

8.      HclTech                 65%

9.      Axis Bank             63%

10.  LnT                       63%

2012 Worst Performers(Nifty)

1.      Infosys      -17%

2.      Gail           -8%

3.      Bharti       -8%

4.      Ntpc          -4%

5.      Wipro        -4%

6.      Bhel           -3%

7.      Herohonda 0%

8.      Cairn         2%

9.      Ongc         3%

10.  JindalStl & Power  4%

India Market Wrap

Ø  INDICES: Sensex -157 at 16026 (-0.97%), NIFTY -46 at 4861 (-0.93%), CNXMIDCAP -46 at 6857 (-0.66%)

Ø  SECTORAL PERFORMANCE: BANKEX -1.51%, AUTO -0.79%, CAPITAL GOODS -1.21%, HEALTHCARE -0.51%, Metal -1.83%, OIL & GAS -0.56%, IT 0.15%, FMCG -0.89%, PSU -1.01%, REALTY -1.23%, Consumer Durables 0.11%, POWER -1.45%

Ø  MARKET BREADTH: 146 Advances, 343 Declines (BSE 500)

Ø  VOLUMES: BSE $0.33bn (17.05%), NSE $1.63bn (15.29%), F&O $22.33bn (25.45%)

Ø  TODAY'S GAINERS: HCLT 1.71%, TTMT 1.24%, TCS 1.23%, SAIL 0.99%, BHEL 0.87%

Ø  TODAY'S LOSERS: TPWR -5.49%, SESA -5.23%, MSIL -4.54%, STLT -4.01%, RPWR -3.68%

MARKET COMMENTARY:

Indian equities came under pressure for a second consecutive trading session of the week, as continued weakness in the rupee raised fears of more outflows from FIIs.  Domestic markets failed soar in tandem with the rally in global markets as domestic concerns marred investors’ appetite for riskier asset classes like equities. Though, the beaten down sectoral gauges of last session IT and technology have moved higher but the rate sensitive that were the top gainers are suffering sharp profit taking. Power sector too has given up its last session gains. On the global front, though the European markets made a bit hesitant start but have gathered momentum on speculation that China and the euro area will do more to bolster economic growth. Sentiments in Asian markets remained sanguine since the start of trade tracking overnight rally in US markets as investors resorted to bargain hunting amid some supportive developments from the meeting of group of eight (G8) nations and hopes that world’s second largest economy China would employ further stimulus measures to spur growth of the global growth machine. Back home, the beleaguered the rupee slipped below the 55.25 per dollar mark, hitting a four-month low against the greenback, as the widening trade and current account deficits weighed on the Indian currency. which started on a positive note went ahead to touch fresh historical lows in the session and weighed down investors’ morale. On the sectoral space, buying was evident in the Healthcare and Consumer Durables supported the benchmark indices. On the flipside, the falls in high beta Realty, Banking and Power sectors by more than a percent each exerted pressure on the bourses. Moreover, the market breadth was in favor of declines.

NEWS ON TODAYS MOVERS:

Ø  ABB rose 1.99%, after the company said it won an order worth around Rs 175 crore from NTPC to build two substations in Maharashtra.

Ø  National Aluminium Company fell 1.89% after net profit fell 7.6% to Rs 282.10 crore on 1.9% decline in net sales to Rs 1753.41 crore in Q4 March 2012 over Q4 March 2011.

Ø  Gitanjali Gems rose 0.34% after consolidated net profit rose 37.32% to Rs 487.25 crore on 33% growth in net sales to Rs 12498.30 crore in the year ended 31 March 2012 over the year ended 31 March 2011.

Ø  State-run oil marketing companies rose 0.3% on reports the government will provide Rs 38500 crore as cash subsidy to state-run oil companies for January-March 2012 quarter. .

Ø  Reliance Industries declined 0.63% after the company said to seeks loan of $1 bn to fund expansion

Ø  Thomas Cook (India) rose 2.54% after the company said its parent Thomas Cook Group plc has reached an agreement with a subsidiary of Fairfax Financial Holdings to sell its 77% stake in the company to the latter.

Ø  Sun Pharmaceutical Industries fell 3.48% on profit booking after the stock rose 2.21% in the preceding two sessions to Rs 593.05 on 21 May 2012 from a recent low of Rs 580.25 on 17 May 2012.

Ø  Power Finance Corporation rose 0.51% after net profit rose 34.69% to Rs 818.30 crore on 40.44% increase in total income to Rs 3,684.29 crore in Q4 March 2012 over Q4 March 2011.

Ø  Bhel rose 0.87%, extending Monday's 2.51% rise triggered by the company bagging a contract from NTPC.

Ø  Tata Communications fell 0.45% after the company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 260.94 crore for Q4 March 2012, higher than net loss of Rs 156.51 crore in Q4 March 2011.

CORPORATE NEWS:

Ø  Suven Life Sciences gets four patent approvals

Ø  RIL ropes in Phillips 66 technology for Jamnagar plants

Ø  Genpact inks finance, accounting deal with Dr Reddy's

Ø  PFC Q4 net up 35% at Rs 820 cr

Ø  Venus Remedies gets patent in South Africa for antibiotic

Ø  Nalco's net profit Rs 849 cr in 2011-12

Ø  Tata Comm Q4 net loss widens to Rs 261 cr

Ø  The Coal India-ICVL story: Missed opportunitie

Ø  Apollo Tyres expands capacity of S Africa units by 20-30%

Ø  Thomas Cook India sells stake to Fairbridge for Rs 817 cr

Ø  Swiss Re may buy 26% in L&T's proposed health insurance JV

Ø  Wockhardt cons Q4 net loss at Rs191.64

Ø  PFC cons Q4 net profit surges by 16%

Ø  Dr Reddy's launch Lansoprazole capsules in US market

Ø  Bajaj Auto to boost capacity by 25% to match up with competition

Ø  PSU OMCs in demand on likely oil subsidy

Ø  M&M to infuse Rs500 cr, aims to recapture 2wheeler mkt

Ø  RBI will continue take steps to stabilise rupee: Gokarn |

Ø  ABB bags Rs175 cr order from NTPC

Ø  RIL seeks loan of $1 bn to fund expansion

Ø  Tata Motors to raise funds via bonds: Source

Ø  RINL files draft prospectus for IPO

ECONOMIC NEWS:

Ø  Presidential polls: Sangma appeals to political parties

Mid Market Wrap

Market Commentary:

Ø  Asian stocks rose for a second day and metals advanced on speculation China and Europe will take steps to bolster economic growth. The euro weakened.

Ø  Backhome, a bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices trimmed gains after a firm opening.The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty stayed up 0.6% each led by buying interest in oil & gas, technology, private banks and metals stocks. Nifty was trying to regain 4950 mark.

Ø  Stocks in Focus:

v  Tata Power: stock was down by more than 2% ahead of its FY 2012 results today.

v  Thomas Cook was the most active stock on the BSE after the parent company sold 77% stake in Indian unit to Fairbridge Capital at Rs 50 a share and announced open offer at Rs 65.48 a share. The stock gained 2%.

Ø  The rupee recovered by four paise to 54.99 after touching an all-time low in late morning trade due to mild selling of dollars by banks following measures taken by RBI to curb the local currency's fall.

Ø  Nifty May Futs may take further direction after EU opening. We expect it trade in the range of 4890-4950.

Ø  INDICES: Sensex +83 at 16267 (0.51%), NIFTY +23 at 4929 (0.47%), CNXMIDCAP +28 at 6931 (0.4%)

Ø  SECTORAL PERFORMANCE: BANKEX 0.47%, AUTO 0.52%, CAPITAL GOODS 0.35%, HEALTHCARE -0.24%, Metal 0.62%, OIL & GAS 0.99%, IT 0.73%, FMCG 0.55%, PSU 0.97%, REALTY -0.13%, Consumer Durables 0.39%, POWER 0.53%

Ø  MARKET BREADTH: 322 Advances, 162 Declines (BSE 500)

Ø  TODAY'S GAINERS: BHEL 3.02%, TTMT 2.62%, SAIL 2.53%, CAIR 1.95%, RCOM 1.67%

Ø  TODAY'S LOSERS: SUNP -2.5%, TPWR -2.4%, MSIL -1.67%, SESA -1.44%, RPWR -1.07%