MMXII A Leap Year ...Year of Water Dragon !!!

2012 (MMXII) A Leap Year!!!
Year of Water Dragon !!!

Ø The coming 2012 year of the water Dragon is just about the corner. According to Chinese Calendar Dragon symbol of the 2012 year is; an intelligent and laborious worker who never puts aside work though sometimes this leads him to excesses. The water Dragon has enough courage to face challenges and easily finds weak points that stand on his way to success.

Ø Luckily, most of us are also not Mayans, who predicted the end of the world in 2012, and will survive the year. But Though not everything is likely to be smooth sailing in 2012. Indian economy is likely to enter year 2012 on a much softer note as compared to the year 2011 A year Of “Rabbit” where the benchmark index bounced to its record high in January 2011. The overall market environment has been uncertain for the past one year, weighed down by the European debt crisis, depreciating rupee, slowdown in global growth rate, policy logjam and margin pressures on corporate.

Ø The more domestic political pressures the more likely there is to be a misstep at the geopolitical level. In addition, there are growing popular movements across the world. Again, all of these add up, very testing time for markets in 2012.

Ø Growth is likely to undershoot the consensus expectations of 7%+ in fiscal year 2012- 13. Indian rupee weakness should help Information Technology stocks and that sector has some of India’s well-run and better governed companies. The Indian rupee likely to remain vulnerable near-term mainly because of the threat that the untamed fiscal deficit poses to India’s current account balance, in the face of declining global risk appetite and unattractive asset prices in the country.

Ø More than two dozen companies on the Indian benchmarks will face FCCB redemption worth 6.2 billion USD by the end of the next fiscal year in March 2013.

Ø The prospects for markets don’t look very endearing. Many of the world's biggest developed economies are heading into recession, global stock markets look set to recoup only a fraction of their heavy losses in 2011, oil prices will likely to head lower, and asset managers are unsure where best to invest.

Ø Well clearly current situation indicates that there is a worry or rather than much more than just the worry. There is not adequate confidence that global outlook is particularly good. Overall sentiments continue to remain shrouded in worries in the coming year. As I Say Why should we try to catch a falling knife?

2011 The Year Of “RABIT” :

Ø It has been a year that most stock market investors would want to forget. investors saw around 375 bln USD of their wealth eroded as Indian equities tanked in 2011.They incurred heavy losses it has been a rather difficult year for investors. Sensex, the broader benchmark, has been amongst the worst performers globally during the year GDP growth was 6.9% (on an annualized basis) according to data released in November, and has shown signs of slowing down. The current scenario on the Street has evoked memories of 2008.

Ø The rupee also fell to historic lows against the US dollar. Whereas Continuing their record-breaking spree, gold and silver galloped to all-time highs.

Ø With a near rollback of foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail, the government inaction is once again at the forefront.

Ø The possibilities of agitation by Anna Hazare on the Lok Pal Bill remains an outstanding issue. The reforms momentum is completely lost Though Lok Sabha passes Lokpal Bill but no Constitutional status.

Ø A new draft direct tax code to recast the Income Tax Act. Revolutionary in concept and will make IT payments easier and less burdensome. Credit goes to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

Ø Price Rise: All commodities became costlier, especially sugar which had touched a 30 year high in prices. Ministry Responsible: Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar.

Ø Spectrum allocation in telecomm. Still hanging fire. Ministry Responsible: Telecommunication minister Raja.

Ø Overall review of all things concerned - be in personal, financial, relationships ,political and so on - is definitely a great idea before you get busy with your preparations for the New Year eve celebrations. To Conclude I would say…

“What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”

Year To date Performance as of 29.12.2011

2011 Best Performers(Nifty) 2011 Worst Performers(Nifty)

1 HUVR 32.41% 1 RELI (59.19%)

2 ITC 14.92% 2 SAIL (55.86%)

3 ACEM 9.74% 3 RPWR (54.35%)

4 GRASIM 7.37% 4 RCOM (53.15%)

5 ACC 7.04% 5 HNDL (52.55%)

6 BJAUT 3.98% 6 STLT (51.59%)

7 SUNP 2.40% 7 SESA (51.35%)

8 PWGR 1.73% 8 TATA (49.75%)

9 TCS 0.00% 9 JPA (49.69%)

10 KMB (1.70%) 10 LT (49.50%)