2013 (MMXIII) The
Lucky 13th?!!
Year of Black Snake!!
Ø
According to the Chinese Zodiac, 2013 the year of the black
Snake” is just about the corner. According to Ancient
Chinese wisdom says a Snake in the house is a good omen because it means that
your family will not starve. Will the coming year 2013 be a Lucky or Unlucky
13? As for 13 is the death card in tarot!!
Ø
If u ask me according to me the Year of Snake will be lucky for
India!! After a very challenging 2012, Indian economy is
likely to enter year 2013 on a much positive note as compared to the year 2012. India in 2013 will
be a mix of politics, impending elections, reforms and economic revival expectations.
Addressing the fiscal deficit may be next on the agenda.
Ø
The prospects for markets look very
endearing, India’s
economy is gradually improving as we move into 2013. I feel overall growth will
pick up gradually to 6.5% in 2013 and further to 7.2% in 2014.
Ø
The market has so far got caught up in the noise – in 2013, you
will have to look beyond that lower interest rates and inflation, easier
liquidity and government intent - all tailwinds for the market.
Ø
As per latest RBI’s guidance, rate cuts could resume in the first
quarter of 2013 – most likely in January itself. The global situation appears
to be stabilizing while the domestic industrial cycle should also gather some
steam soon. Rate-sensitive cyclicals and industrial cyclicals doing well over
the next few months. Earnings season so far indicates earnings trend close to
bottoming.
Ø An improving economic
outlook and an upward trending market suggest that it is attractively poised to
increase equity positions. Value stocks have struggled over the past 6-years
and are due for a bounce. Historical pattern recognition work also suggests
2013 to be a year for value positioning.
Ø According to me the
stage is set for a new bull market, Indices are all set for a minimum +15% to
+20% returns in the coming year.
2012
The Year Of “Water Dragon”: Worst is Over!!
Ø
It had been a year that most stock market
investors would not want to forget. To arrest a falling growth trajectory and rising twin deficits and
the resulting pessimism within industry circles on “policy paralysis”, GoI
announced a number of reforms measures to revive sentiment and growth. To
signal its strong intent, it chose to start with reforms that were among the
most contentious politically such as……
Ø
Easing rules for FDI in single-brand
retail, allowing 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, allowing FDI of 49% each in
aviation and power exchanges, and increasing FDI limit from 49% to 74% in cable
networks, DTH, teleports and mobile TV
Ø
Increasing diesel prices by Rs5/litre and
restricting subsidised LPG cylinder to six per family, realigning of tax
structure to reduce the gap between diesel/petrol prices
Ø
Withholding tax cut to 5% from 20% on
external borrowings
Ø
A Committee on controversial tax decisions recommended
that GAAR be postponed for three years and that FIIs should be exempt from
GAAR.
Ø Investments
by Foreign Institutional Investors
(FIIs) in the Indian stock market have crossed $22.22bln in 2012, marking a
huge turnaround from net outflows reported in 2011.
Ø
Most of India Inc also seem to have borrowed afresh to
meet their foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) obligations in 2012.Of the
45 Indian companies whose FCCBs were due for redemption between March and
mid-October 2012, 19 managed to redeem the bonds on the due dates. The list
includes Reliance Communications, Strides Arcolab, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and
Jaiprakash Associates.
Ø The rupee also fell to historic lows against the US dollar.
Ø Overall review of all things concerned - be in personal, financial,
relationships ,political and so on - is
definitely a great idea before you get busy with your preparations for the New
Year eve celebrations.
Ø As
we approach the end of 2012 , I would like to take this opportunity to
thank you all for your support throughout very tough and volatile year.
Here's wishing you and your family Merry Xmas and Happy 2013
Ø To Conclude I would say…
“What lies behind us and what lies before us
are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.”
My
Top Pick For 2013
RelCap
Cmp 471
RCom
Cmp 74
RelInfra
Cmp 522
Dlf
Cmp 225
GodrejInd
Cmp 310
Year To date Performance as of
20.12.2011
Nifty 27.94%
Sensex 25.88%
2012 Best Performers(Nifty)
1.
JPAssociate
93%
2.
IDFC
91%
3.
Ultratech
73%
4.
Asian
Paints 71%
5.
Tata
Motors 71%
6.
ICICI
Bank 66%
7.
Maruti
66%
8.
HclTech
65%
9.
Axis
Bank 63%
10. LnT
63%
2012 Worst Performers(Nifty)
1.
Infosys
-17%
2.
Gail
-8%
3.
Bharti
-8%
4.
Ntpc
-4%
5.
Wipro
-4%
6.
Bhel
-3%
7.
Herohonda 0%
8.
Cairn
2%
9.
Ongc
3%
10.
JindalStl & Power 4%
