Pre Open Thoughts: Resilient start, Choppy day!!!

Pre Open Thoughts: Resilient start, Choppy day!!!

Ø To overcome a fear, here's all you have to do: realize the fear is there, and do the action you fear anyway. The undertone seems to be turning cautious again. The movement of the market may not make much sense. The expiry of current month’s F&O contracts take center stage as just one day left for the expiry. The February derivative settlement been great enough.

Ø Coming back to macro conditions, talking of fiscal conditions, India’s budget deficit has almost reached the year-end projection. The external balance sheet too is showing some signs of stress. Movement in currency and commodities will be crucial going ahead. One has to see how the Government tackles these issues once it subsides. Budget and RBI policy will be the main domestic events to keep on one’s radar apart from global events.

Ø All eyes will be on Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee who will present the annual budget for 2012/13 on 16 March 2012, while the railways budget will be presented on 14 March 2012. The budget session of parliament will start on 12 March 2012. The government will present the Economic Survey for 2011/12 on March 15.

Ø The start looks a bit indecisive, as investors digest a whole host of news. Asian stocks are mixed. European indices closed with slender losses whereas US benchmarks ended positive.

Ø According to systems Nifty is likely to trade between 5500 -5600; on the way down 5550 may now act as strong positional support for the market.

Ø The Foreign institutional investors(FII’s) continued to be on the buying side with provisional figures for Tuesday stood at Rs 14bn in the cash while the Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs 12.44bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

Rollover Analysis

Curr Mnth 3MA 6M A

Mkt Wide 42.17% 46.06% 46.00%

NIFTY 48.03% 47.52% 46.58%

Ø Rolls picked up on E-2 day; Nifty rolls ended above 3M and 6M averages whereas Market wide rolls remained slightly below averages.

Ø On the Sectoral front Textile, FMCG and Auto shown better rollovers whereas Real Estate, Chem & Fert and Cement were laggards.

Ø Stock specific McLeodruss and Bharatforg shown above average rollovers whereas Patni and Bajajhldng were laggards.